On May 12, the tariff agreement reached between China and the United States in Geneva shocked the world. The United States announced that, starting from May 14, it would slash the additional tariffs on Chinese PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) from 125% to 10%. Together with the previous 20% "fentanyl - related tax," the comprehensive tax rate would still drop to 30%, representing a significant reduction of 115 percentage points. This "epic" adjustment directly reversed the trade friction dilemma that had persisted since April 2025, opening up a North American market worth over $10 billion for Chinese PCB enterprises.
I. Tariff Plunge: A Shocking 115 - Percentage - Point Drop
According to the "Joint Statement of the China - US Economic and Trade Talks in Geneva," this adjustment by the US side covered 91% of the additional tariffs, mainly targeting the 50% and 41% additional tariffs imposed in two rounds on April 8 and April 9. Take high - end PCBs for AI servers as an example. Previously, for every $1 million worth of products exported, $1.25 million in tariffs had to be paid. After the implementation of the new policy, only $100,000 is required, a 92% drop in costs.
Data Verification:
· In 2024, China's PCB exports to the United States were approximately $3.8 billion, accounting for 8.2% of the global PCB trade volume.
· If the 125% tariff had remained in place, China's exports to the United States in 2025 might have shrunk to less than $1.5 billion. After the implementation of the new policy, it is expected that the export value will rebound to $3 billion within 90 days, returning to the pre - trade - war level.
· The market for PCBs for AI servers has benefited the most. The value of the PCB for a single NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 rack reaches $171,000. The tariff reduction has directly led to a surge of over 200% in North American orders.
II. Retrospect of the Trade War: 14 Months of Industry Pain and Transformation
Since March 2024, when the United States imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese PCBs on the grounds of "reciprocal tariffs," the industry has experienced three rounds of severe impacts:
1.The First Round of Impact (April - June 2024):
1. China's PCB exports to the United States plummeted by 47% year - on - year. Enterprises such as Shenghong Technology and Unimicron Technology Corporation were forced to transfer 15% of their production capacity to Thailand.
2. The costs of North American electronics manufacturing enterprises soared. Terminal manufacturers such as Apple and Dell were forced to accept an 18% - 22% increase in PCB procurement prices.
2.The Second Round of Impact (December 2024):
1. The United States raised the tariff to 84%, directly causing a 62% drop in China's exports of HDI boards to the United States and bringing the global AI server supply chain to a standstill.
2. The industry was forced to accelerate technological upgrades. In 2024, the R & D investment of Chinese PCB enterprises increased by 35% year - on - year, and the proportion of high - end HDI board production capacity increased from 28% to 37%.
3.The Third Round of Impact (April 2025):
1. The tariff was further increased to 125%, almost halting China's exports of automotive - electronics PCBs to the United States. Tesla's Shanghai factory was forced to cut production by 12% due to supply chain disruptions.
2. The industry launched a "dual - circulation" strategy. In 2024, the domestic PCB domestic - demand market exceeded 200 billion yuan, a 21% year - on - year increase, offsetting 40% of the export losses.
III. Market Changes: The Game and Opportunities in the 90 - Day Window
Although this tariff adjustment is a 90 - day temporary measure, it has triggered a chain reaction in the global industrial chain:
1. Differentiated Enterprise Strategies:
①Leading Enterprises: Unimicron Technology Corporation and Shennan Circuits are accelerating the expansion of high - end PCB production capacity in Thailand, aiming to increase the proportion of overseas production capacity from 18% to 35% to cope with future tariff fluctuations.
②Small and Medium - sized Manufacturers: Enterprises such as Wellgo (with a 0.02% share of exports to the United States) have turned to the European market. In the first quarter of 2025, their exports to Germany increased by 45%.
2. Accelerated Technological Upgrades:
①PCBs for AI Servers Become a Focus of Competition: Shiyun Circuit has achieved mass production of 28 - layer AI server boards, with a unit price exceeding $5,000 per square meter, a 300% premium over ordinary server boards.
②The Demand for Automotive - Electronics PCBs Booms: With North American automakers accelerating electrification, China's exports of automotive - radar PCBs to the United States in Q1 2025 increased by 120% month - on - month.
3. Supply Chain Reconstruction:
①Thailand Accepts Capacity Transfer: Since 2024, Chinese PCB enterprises have invested over $2 billion in Thailand. It is expected that by the end of 2025, its production capacity will account for 15% of the global total, making it the second - largest production base.
②Accelerated Material Substitution: The ultra - low - loss copper - clad laminates developed by Shengyi Technology have passed NVIDIA's certification, which can reduce the impact of tariffs by 12% - 15%.
IV. Expert Opinions: Short - Term Dividends and Long - Term Challenges
CITIC Construction Investment Securities pointed out that this tariff adjustment will directly boost the profit margins of Chinese PCB enterprises by 3 - 5 percentage points. It is expected that the industry's net profit in 2025 will increase by 25% - 30% year - on - year. However, three major risks need to be watched out for:
1. Policy Uncertainty: The results of the tariff consultations in August will determine whether the 10% benchmark tax rate will be made permanent. If the negotiations break down, the tax rate may rebound to 60%.
2. Technical Barriers: The United States is promoting the localization of PCB production to support the "Chip Act." It is expected that by 2026, domestic production capacity will meet 30% of the demand, squeezing the market space of Chinese enterprises.
3.Cost Transmission: The 18% year - on - year increase in copper prices has eroded corporate profits, and the tariff dividend may be partially offset by rising raw - material prices.
Conclusion
The 90 - day tariff "honeymoon period" provides a rare breathing space for the Chinese PCB industry. Finding a balance between the short - term surge in orders and the long - term technological competition will be the key to the success of enterprises. As Shenghong Technology stated in its announcement, "Tariff fluctuations are a challenge, but the demand waves of AI and new energy are the real opportunities." The aftermath of this trade war may accelerate the transformation of the global PCB industry into an era driven by technology.
(Data Sources: China Printed Circuit Association (CPCA), Prismark, Dell'Oro Group, American PCB Association.)