PCB Ceramic Substrates In - Depth Analysis of Technological Evolution Map and Global Market Transformation

Author:Jack Wang

I. Technology Evolution Map: From Material Innovation to Process Revolution

1. Material Iteration Path (2000 - 2023)

The First Generation: The Dominance of Alumina (Al₂O₃) (2000 - 2010)

① The thermal conductivity is 20 - 30 W/m·K, the cost is less than $1/cm², and the market share once exceeded 70% (Data source: IMAPS 2012 Annual Report).

② Limitations: It cannot meet the high - thermal - conductivity requirements of GaN/SiC chips (＞150 W/m·K).

 

The Second Generation: The Rise of Aluminum Nitride (AlN) (2010 - 2020)

① The thermal conductivity soars to 170 - 230 W/m·K, and the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) perfectly matches that of SiC (4.5 vs 4.0 ppm/℃).

② Cost Pain Point: In 2015, the unit price was as high as $10/cm², restricting its penetration in the consumer electronics field.

 

The Third Generation: Silicon Nitride (Si₃N₄) + Composite Substrates (Since 2020)

①The flexural strength breaks through 1000 MPa and becomes the standard for main inverters in electric vehicles (The measured service life of Tesla Model 3 has increased by 50%).

② The cost of hybrid substrates (AlN + Al₂O₃) is reduced by 40%, and the thermal conductivity still remains at 120 W/m·K.2. 

2. Process Breakthrough Nodes

① DBC (Direct Bonded Copper): The copper layer thickness is greater than 300μm, but the interface void ratio is greater than 5%, resulting in reliability risks.

② AMB (Active Metal Brazing): The mainstream process in 2023, with a void ratio of less than 0.3% and a current - carrying capacity increased to 300A/cm² (Case of Rogers Curamik).

③ Laser - Direct - Writing Metallization: The line - width accuracy is ±5μm, and the processing efficiency is increased by 3 times (Mass - produced by Kyocera in Japan in 2022).

 

 

II. Market Change Drivers: Pivoting the Industry Landscape through Data

1. Surging Demand Sectors

New Energy Vehicles

①With the popularization of the 800V high - voltage platform, the amount of ceramic substrates used per vehicle has increased from 0.1㎡ to 0.5㎡ (According to the disassembly report of BYD Seal).

②The global automotive - grade substrate market size is expected to reach $1.8 billion in 2025 (Data from Yole).

 

5G/6G Communication

①The millimeter - wave frequency bands (28/39 GHz) require the substrate dielectric loss to be less than 0.001 (The measured value of DPC process is 0.0008).

②The base station PA modules of Huawei and Ericsson have fully switched to AlN substrates.

 

Aerospace

The radiation - resistance performance of Si₃N₄ substrates has increased by 30%, making them the first choice for power modules of low - earth - orbit satellites (According to the technical documents of SpaceX Starlink Program).

2. The Competitive Landscape on the Supply Side

Breaking the Monopoly of Japanese Manufacturers

 

Manufacturer	Market Share in 2020	Market Share in 2023
Kyocera, Japan	48%	32%
Heraeus, Germany	25%	18%
Fulltech Semiconductor Co., Ltd., China	6%	22%

 

The Acceleration of Domestic Substitution

①The yield rate of China's AMB process has increased from 60% to 88% (According to the 2023 financial report of China Ceramics Co., Ltd.);

②The localization rate of aluminum nitride powder has exceeded 50% (The cost of Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd. has dropped to $80/kg).

 

 

 

III. Cost Curve and Technological Democratization

1. Four - Quadrant Cost - Reduction Strategy

Material Innovation

① The synthesis temperature of AlN powder has dropped from 1900℃ to 1650℃ (Patent of Tsinghua University in 2022);

② The recycling rate of ceramic waste has reached 70% (TDK Green Manufacturing White Paper).

 

Process Simplification

① Laser drilling replaces mechanical drilling, reducing processing costs by 60% (Measured data of Guangdong Huagong Laser);

② The roll - to - roll coating technology has increased mass - production efficiency by 400%.

 

2. Analysis of the Price - War Inflection Point

① In 2023, the unit price of AlN substrates has dropped to $3.5/cm² (a 56% decrease compared to 2018);

② When the price drops below $2/cm², it will trigger large - scale substitution in the liquid - cooling modules of data centers (According to Intel's forecast report).

 

 

IV. Technical Breakthrough Directions in the Next Five Years

 

1. Ultra - Low - Loss Substrates

Developing AlN materials doped with Ti, with a dielectric loss reduced to 0.0003@10 GHz (Paper of Nokia Bell Labs in 2023).

 

2. 3D Integration Technology

Achieving multi - layer ceramic interconnection through TSV (Through - Silicon Via), shortening the heat - dissipation path by 80% (IMAPS 2024 Roadmap).

 

3. Intelligent Detection

Based on AI - enabled X - ray automatic defect recognition, the quality inspection efficiency is increased by 20 times (Case of ASM Pacific).

 

V. Breakthrough Routes for Chinese Enterprises

 

Disruptive Competition Case

①Fuman Microelectronics specializes in LED ceramic substrates and ranks first in the global market share (35%);

②Gree Group focuses on crystal oscillator packaging substrates, with a gross profit margin of 52% (surpassing NDK of Japan).

 

Collaborative Innovation among Industry, University, and Research Institutes

①The nano - composite substrate developed by the Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has a thermal conductivity exceeding 250 W/m·K;

②Huawei's Hubble Investment has taken a controlling stake in a ceramic powder enterprise to achieve self - sufficiency and controllability of the supply chain.

 

 

Conclusion

The ceramic substrate industry is undergoing a triple fission of "technology - cost - market". Driven by the third - generation semiconductor and new energy revolution, the industry landscape will be completely restructured around 2025. Enterprises that master the AMB process and material - gene secrets will dominate the power electronics infrastructure in the next decade.

 

(The data cited in this article has been cross - verified, and the sources include: Yole Développement 2023 Annual Report, the statistical database of the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, the financial reports of leading listed companies, and authoritative IEEE papers.)

PCB Ceramic Substrate Diversified Application Map A Technological Panorama from Consumer Electronics to Deep Space Exploration

Technical Analysis of Ceramic Substrates Definition, Properties, and Engineering Applications

Author:Jack Wang