Analyze together with PCBMASTER - The drastic changes in the PCB industry landscape under the China-US trade war The data-driven truth of the industry.

Author: Jack Wang

In the tide of economic globalization, the China-US trade relationship has always been a crucial part of the global economic landscape. However, since 2018, the outbreak of the China-US trade war has brought a huge impact on the global economy, and the international trade of the printed circuit board (PCB) industry has not been spared. This trade friction has not only changed the market pattern of the PCB industry but also had a profound impact on the global supply chain and the development strategies of enterprises.

I. The Tariff Edge: Real Trade Data under a 25% Tariff Rate

According to data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), PCBs (HS codes: 8534/8542) were included in the first batch of $50 billion worth of goods subject to additional tariffs in July 2018, and the tariff rate soared from 3% to 25%. This directly led to:

· In 2019, China's PCB exports to the United States decreased by 18.7% year - on - year (General Administration of Customs of China).

· The procurement costs of American enterprises skyrocketed: The import unit price of 1 - 6 layer boards increased by 22%, and that of HDI boards increased by 31% (IPC Association's "2020 Global Procurement Report").

II. Industrial Relocation: The Logic Behind the Surge in Southeast Asian Production Capacity

Data from Prismark shows that Vietnam's PCB output value soared from $1.2 billion in 2018 to $3.7 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.6%. Among them:

· American - funded enterprises account for 58% (Schneider Electric, TTM Vietnam factories).

· Taiwanese enterprises in China account for 32% (Unimicron, Tripod Technology Vietnam bases).

The PCB import value of Mexico reached $1.9 billion in 2023 (a 217% increase compared to 2018), and 46% of the products ultimately flowed into the US market (data from the US Department of Commerce).

III. Technology Supply Disruptions: The Reality of Hindered Imports of Equipment and Materials

The direct impact of the export control by the US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS):

· The import volume of vacuum presses decreased by 74% from 2019 - 2022 (China Electronic Special Equipment Association).

· The procurement cycle for high - frequency board materials was extended from 45 days to 120 days (Shengyi Technology's 2022 annual report).

· The R & D investment proportion of domestic enterprises increased from 3.2% to 5.8% (CPCA 2023 White Paper).

IV. The Invisible Battlefield: The Capital Dilemma under the US Dollar Settlement System

Data from SWIFT shows that:

· The proportion of US dollar settlements for PCB enterprises decreased from 78% in 2018 to 53% in 2023.

· The transaction volume of the Cross - Border Inter - Bank Payment System (CIPS) in China increased by 12 times (Annual Report of the People's Bank of China 2023).

· The proportion of European customers using the euro for settlement reached 27% (export data of Shennan Circuit).

V. Alternative Solutions: The Breakout Paths for Domestic Enterprises

1. Technology Substitution Timeline

Regional Market Reconstruction

Exports to Europe increased by 39% from January to November 2023 (China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronics).

The proportion of orders from RCEP member states increased to 28% (financial report data of Shengyi Technology).

VI. Future Projections: Three Certain Trends in 2025

The China - US trade war has had a profound impact on PCB international trade in many aspects. For Chinese PCB enterprises, although they face many challenges, there are also opportunities. Enterprises need to actively respond to trade barriers, strengthen technological innovation, optimize the supply chain layout, and expand into diversified markets to achieve sustainable development in the complex international market environment. In the future, with the changes in the global economic situation and the adjustment of trade relations, the international trade pattern of the PCB industry will continue to evolve. Enterprises need to maintain a keen market insight and adjust their development strategies in a timely manner.

Author: Jack Wang